MalaRis Abstract Preface Malaria archive Malaria models Scenarios Data input LMM MSM Simulations 1960-2000
Future prospects References Abbreviations Glossary Disclaimer

Future prospects

Temperature correction

The present study shows that major changes in the malaria spread in East Africa (see page "2001-2050") are expected in future. Particularly the East African Highlands are affected by a changed warmer climate. However, at temperatures around the sporogonic temperature threshold the LMM simulation is quite sensitive to the temperature input. For this reason the temperatures have to be as realistic as possible. The temperature data input of LMM will be checked in the next step and will be corrected when necessary.

LMM validation

LMM simulations have so far only compared with malaria distribution maps from the mapping MAlaria Risk in Africa (MARA) project (see page "1960-2000"). A more detailed validation of LMM will be based on entomological and parasitological data from West African field studies. Due to the LMM construction the model results will be only compared to rural field measurements. The data taken from the literature will finally be compared with LMM simulations forced by observations from 34 African weather stations.
The model output will be evaluated with regard to annual Entomological Inoculation Rates (EIRa)), annual Human Biting Rates (HBRa), average CircumSporozoite Protein Rates (CSPR) of mosquitoes and parasite ratios (PR). Moreover the simulated period of the malaria transmission will be compared with the observed malaria season.

  • Malaria and meteorological observations in West Africa and Cameroon

  • Original and proposed LMM settings

  • Validation of a proposed LMM setting

  • Final LMM parameter setting

    By means of the validation shortcomings of the LMM might be detected. In such a case the parameter setting of the model will be changed. Finally an "ideal" LMM setting will be again forced by corrected temperature and precipitation data. Such more resilient LMM simulations will increase the confidence of the assessment of malaria risk in Africa.

    MSM results

    Corrected REMO temperatures will change the simulations and projections of the MSM. For this reason, new MSM runs will be performed by means of new climate conditions that are based on corrected REMO temperature and already adjusted REMO precipitation data.