MalaRis Abstract Preface Malaria archive Malaria models Scenarios Data input LMM MSM Simulations 1960-2000 LMM MSM 2001-2050 LMM MSM Future prospects References Abbreviations Glossary Disclaimer

Impact of climate change figure, table reference variable location area position period (YYY1M1-YYY2M2) mosquito species note Confalonieri et al. 2007 (tab. 8.2) projected impacs of climate change on malaria Earth, Africa, Zimbabwe, Britain, Portugal, Australia, India - - 2020-2100 - - Hartman et al. 2002 (fig. 10) change in fuzzy logic climate suitability for stable malaria transmission from baseline climate Zimbabwe - - 2100 vs. 1920-1980 - MDM results Hartman et al. 2002 (fig. 6) fuzzy logic climate suitability for stable malaria transmission Zimbabwe - - 1920-1980 - MDM results Hartman et al. 2002 (fig. 9) fuzzy logic climate suitability for stable malaria transmission under various climate change scenarios Zimbabwe - - 2100 - MDM results Hartman et al. 2002 (tab. 1) percentage with climate suitability for stable malaria transmission Zimbabwe - - 2100 - MDM results; stable: fuzzy logic values ≥ 0.9 Martens et al. 1995b (fig. 4) predicted malaria risk world - - 2100 vs. 1831-1980 - based on ECHAM1-A GCM and a measure of VC Rogers and Randolph 2000 (fig. 1A) predicted and observed malaria distribution world - - 2000 - - Rogers and Randolph 2000 (fig. 1B) observed and predicted malaria distribution world - - 2000, 2050 - - Rogers and Randolph 2000 (fig. 1C) differences between predicted malaria distributions in 2050 and 2000 world - - - - - Tanser et al. 2003 (fig. 2) predicted numbers of month suitable for malaria transmission relative to different climate scenarios Africa - - present climate, 2100 scenario - - Tanser et al. 2003 (tab. 3) person-months of malaria exposure and population exposure Africa - - present climate, 2100 scenario - - Van Lieshout et al. 2004 (fig. 5) additional population at risk under four SRES climate scenarios global - - 2050s, 2080s vs. 1961-1990 - - Van Lieshout et al. 2004 (fig. 7) additional population at risk under four SRES climate scenarios global - - 2080s vs. 1961-1990 - - Van Lieshout et al. 2004 (tab. 2) additional population at risk of malaria by WHO region global - - 2080s - - Notes † position taken from http://www.heavens-above.com/countries.aspx ˜ position roughly rated from Fig. 2 in Hay et al. (2002c) ♠ position roughly rated from information provided by Patz et al. (1998) ♣ position of the meteorological station ♥ that is the position of Sapu, located in the vicinity of Jahally ♦ position roughly rated from Fig. 1 in Molineaux and Gramiccia (1980) ◊ position taken from Hay et al. (2005a)