MalaRis Abstract Preface Malaria archive Malaria models Scenarios Data input LMM MSM Simulations 1960-2000 LMM MSM 2001-2050 LMM MSM Future prospects References Abbreviations Glossary Disclaimer

General information figure, table reference variable location area position period (YYY1M1-YYY2M2) mosquito species note Anderson and May 1991 (fig. 14.3) proportion of subjects remaining malaria infectious Puerto Rico - - - - study of Earle et al. (1939) Anderson and May 1991 (tab. 14.2) latent period and duration of infectiousness - - - - - - Beier et al. 1999 (fig. 1) PR, EIRa - - - - - - Beier et al. 1999 (fig. 2) PR, EIRa categories - - - - - - Bild Der Wissenschaft 2006 (fig. 2a) malaria parasite cycle - - - - - - Bild Der Wissenschaft 2006 (fig. 2b) malaria parasite cycle - - - - - - Billingsley et al. 2005 (fig. 4) RR & MOSQ - - - - - sketch Bockarie et al. 1994 (tab. 3) CSPRa Sierra Leone 4 villages in Bo district see Bockarie et al (1993a); - , -, - , - 199001-199104 Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto, Anopheles funestus ??mean of high/low altitude villages Boudin et al. 1991a (tab. 1) gametocyte prevalences and densities according to age classes Burkina Faso Bobo-Dioulasso 11°12'N, 4°18'W† 1985 to 1987 - savanna area Cox et al. 2007 (fig. 1) estimates of populations of risk from malaria epidemics Africa - - - - - Cox et al. 2007 (tab. 1) statistics regarding malaria epidemics Africa - - - - - Cox et al. 2007 (tab. 3) calculations of estimated annual burden of malaria epidemics Africa - - - - - Craig et al. 1999 Box1) duration sporogonic cycle, pd, vectors surviving sporogony, larval survival - - - - - Martens (1997) pd formula Craig et al. 1999 Box2) RRm, Tmin, Tmax - - - - - climate characteristics of stable, epidemic malaria and malaria free regions De Savigny and Binka 2004 (fig. 1) MALD world - - 1990, 2000 - children under five Detinova 1962 Annexfig2) structures in an ovariole during successive gonotrophic cycles - - - - - - Detinova 1962 (tab. 4) calculation of the duration of the sporogonic cycle - - - - - - Dietz et al. 1974 (tab. 2) malaria variables Nigeria Kano State 12°N, 8°30E - - - Greenwood et al. 2005 (fig. 1) malaria parasite cycle - - - - - - Greenwood et al. 2005 (fig. 4) merozoites ring stage - - - - - microscope photo Gubler 1998 (fig. 2) CMCa, CMCm - Sri Lanka, India, Korea, Manaus - - - evolution of the worldwide malaria situation Gupta et al. 1999 (fig. 1) CMC The Gambia, Kenya Sukuta, Kilifi, Siaya - - - age categories; z(Sukuta)<35†, z(Kilifi)=1†, z(Siaya)=1224† Guyatt and Snow 2004 (fig. 2) numbers of low birth weight due to malaria sub-Saharan Africa - - 2000, 2001 - flow chart Hagmann et al. 2003 (fig. 2) PR according to different ages Principe - 1°35'N, 7°25'E 199905-199908 - - Hagmann et al. 2003 (tab. 1) risk factors for malaria infection Principe - 1°35'N, 7°25'E 199905-199908 - - Hay and Snow 2006 (fig. 1) collected survey data world - - - - malaria atlas project Hay et al. 2003a (fig. 1) epidemic-prone districts Kenya districts - - - - Hay et al. 2004 (tab. 1) population at risk from malaria world - - 1900 to 2010 - - Hay et al. 2005a (fig. 2) population density Africa - - 2000 - rural, urban Hay et al. 2005a (fig. 3) EIRa by land-use category Africa - - - - rural, urban Hay et al. 2005a (fig. 4) PRa by log(EIRa) Africa - - - - urban, peri-urban and rural data Hay et al. 2005a (fig. 5) childhood mortality according to PR classes Africa - - - - urban, peri-urban and rural data Hay et al. 2005a (fig. 7) PRa by log(EIRa) Africa - - - - fit-lines for rural and urban Hay et al. 2005a (tab. 2) populations at malaria risk Africa - - 2000 - with and without urban corrections Hay et al. 2005a (tab. 3) estimates of malaria deaths Africa - - 2000 - urban corrected Hoshen and Morse 2005 (fig. 5) INC?? Botswana ERA40 grid point 17°30'S, 25°00'E 199501-200112 - LMM sensitivity relative to different inoculation-efficiency parameters Hoshen and Morse 2005 (fig. 6) INC?? Botswana ERA40 grid point 17°30'S, 25°00'E 199501-200112 - LMM sensitivity relative to different precipitation amounts Hoshen and Morse 2005 (fig. 7) INC?? Botswana ERA40 grid point 17°30'S, 25°00'E 199501-200112 - LMM sensitivity relative to different values of malaria parasite clearance Hoshen and Morse 2005 (fig. 8) INC?? Botswana ERA40 grid point 17°30'S, 25°00'E 199501-200112 - LMM sensitivity relative to different temperatures Hoshen and Morse 2005 (fig. 9) INC?? Botswana 8 ERA40 grid points latitudes: 17°30'S and 22°30'S, longitudes: 20°00'E, 22°30'E, 25°00'E, 27°30'E and 30°00'E 199501-200112 - LMM sensitivity relative to different temperatures Ijumba and Lindsay 2001 (fig. 2) African rice production, population Africa - - 196101-199012 - - Keiser et al. 2004 (fig. 2) INCa by EIRa Africa urban settings - - - children Keiser et al. 2004 (fig. 3) CMCa, EIRa Africa urban settings - - - flow chart Keiser et al. 2004 (tab. 3a) PRa, EIRa Africa urban settings - - - broken down into countries; sources Keiser et al. 2004 (tab. 3b) PRa, EIRa Africa urban settings - - - broken down into countries; sources Keiser et al. 2005 (fig. 1) malaria risk near dam reservoirs - - - - - sketch Keiser et al. 2005 (fig. 2) relationship between malaria and water projects - - - - - flow chart Killeen et al. 2000 (fig. 1) nature of malaria - - - - - outline of the model Le Houérou 1996 (fig. 4) population northern Africa, Near East - - 190001-199012 - - Le Houérou 1996 (fig. 5) population sub-Saharan Africa arid lands of the Sahel, eastern Africa, southern Africa - 190001-199012 - - Macdonald 1957 (fig. 1) duration of sporogony - - - - - - Macdonald et al. 1968 (fig. 6) observed and simulated INCd Syria Damascus - 196505-196508 - - MARA/ARMA 1998 (fig. 6) duration of the sporogonic cycle, pd, vectors surviving sporogony Africa - - - - - Martens and Thomas 2005 (fig. 1) temporal and spatial malaria scales - - - - - - Molineaux and Gramiccia 1980 (fig. 1) study area Nigeria Garki district 12°26'N, 9°11'E† - - - Molineaux and Gramiccia 1980 (fig. 31) age classes regarding the daily recovery rate Nigeria Garky district 12°26'N, 9°11'E† 197001-197212 - - Ndiaye et al. 2001 (fig. 1) RRa, annual amount of malaria deaths Senegal Niakhar 14°28'N, -16°24'E 1984 to 1996 - - Ndiaye et al. 2001 (fig. 4) RRm Senegal Niakhar 14°28'N, -16°24'E 1984 to 1996 - - Ndiaye et al. 2001 (fig. 5) monthly malaria deaths Senegal Niakhar 14°28'N, -16°24'E 1984 to 1996 - - Ndiaye et al. 2001 (fig. 6) covariation of the number of malaria deaths during September to October and the August rainfall Senegal Niakhar 14°28'N, -16°24'E 1984 to 1996 - - Ndiaye et al. 2001 (tab. 2) correlation between the number of malaria deaths during September to October and monthly climate indices Senegal Niakhar 14°28'N, -16°24'E 1984 to 1996 - - Ndiaye et al. 2001 (tab. 3) lagged correlation coefficients between monthly malaria and precipitation indices Senegal Niakhar 14°28'N, -16°24'E 1984 to 1996 - - Norris 2004 (fig. 1) river, lake and paddy as vector habitat - - - - - sketch Omumbo et al. 2004 (fig. 2) PR by fuzzy climate suitabilty Kenya - - - - among children under the age of 15 years Pascual et al. 2006 (fig. 1) Tm Kenya Kericho, Kabale, Gikongoro, Muhanga - 195001-200012 - CRU data?? for highland in Kenya Pascual et al. 2006 (fig. 3) relative difference in simulated MOSQm and Tm Kenya Kericho, Kabale, Gikongoro, Muhanga - 195001-200012 - CRU data?? for highland in Kenya Pascual et al. 2006 (fig. 6) relative difference in simulated MOSQm for the original and detrended temperature data Kenya Kericho - - - the simulation is using the daily rainfall data at the local station in the Kericho region Phillips 2001 (fig. 1) malaria parasite cycle - - - - - - Price et al. 1996 (fig. 1) malaria parasite cycle - - - - - - Robert et al. 2003 (fig. 1) EIRa sub-Saharan Africa - - - - values for rural and urban sites Robert et al. 2003 (tab. 1) EIRa sub-Saharan Africa - - - - values for rural and urban sites, sources Rogier and Trape 1995 (fig. 2) PR according to different age groups Senegal Dielmo, Ndiop (13°45'N, 16°25'W), (13°41'N, 16°23'W) 199001-199012 and 199301-199312, respectively - Dielmo is situated at a small river, that enables year around larval breeding sites Rogier and Trape 1995 (fig. 4) parasite density according to different age groups Senegal Dielmo, Ndiop (13°45'N, 16°25'W), (13°41'N, 16°23'W) 199001-199012 and 199301-199312, respectively - Dielmo is situated at a small river, that enables year around larval breeding sites Rogier and Trape 1995 (fig. 6) INCa according to different age groups Senegal Dielmo, Ndiop (13°45'N, 16°25'W), (13°41'N, 16°23'W) 199001-199012 and 199301-199312, respectively - Dielmo is situated at a small river, that enables year around larval breeding sites Rogier and Trape 1995 (tab. 1) PR according to different malaria species Senegal Dielmo, Ndiop (13°45'N, 16°25'W), (13°41'N, 16°23'W) 199001-199012 and 199301-199312, respectively - children up to 15 years; Dielmo is situated at a small river, that enables year around larval breeding sites Sachs and Malaney 2002 (fig. 2) gross national product per capita world - - 1995 - - Smith et al. 2005 (fig. 1) parasite ratio models by EIRa values Africa - - - - - Smith et al. 2005 (tab. 1) connection between EIRa and parasite ratio Africa - - - - data and fitted functions and a sensitivity analysis for the best overall model Smith et al. 2007 (fig. 1) malaria life cycle model and R0 - - - - - - Smith et al. 2007 (fig. 2) R0 esimates for 121 African populations Africa - - - - - Snow et al. 1999a (fig. 2) population density Africa - - - - - Stafford Smith 1981 (fig. 1) map of survey area Niger - - - - - Stafford Smith 1981 (fig. 1 Zoom) map of survey area Niger - - - - - Sutherst 2004 (fig. 1) a host-pathogen-vector-environment framework - - - - - flow chart Tanser et al. 2003 (fig. 1) distribution of parasite survey sites, orography Africa - - - - - Toure and Oduola 2004 (fig. 1) malaria distribution global - - - - - - Toure and Oduola 2004 (fig. 2) antimalarial drug resistance - - - - - - Van Lieshout et al. 2004 (fig. 4) countries classified according to current malaria control status global - - 2003 - - Worral et al. 2007 (tab. 1) values of model variables - - - - - - Worral et al. 2007 (tab. 2) model variables included in an uncertainty analysis - - - - - includes arbitrary values Notes † position taken from http://www.heavens-above.com/countries.aspx ˜ position roughly rated from Fig. 2 in Hay et al. (2002c) ♠ position roughly rated from information provided by Patz et al. (1998) ♣ position of the meteorological station ♥ that is the position of Sapu, located in the vicinity of Jahally ♦ position roughly rated from Fig. 1 in Molineaux and Gramiccia (1980) ◊ position taken from Hay et al. (2005a)